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Anuma Research—The Consumer Model IndexUpdated July 10, 2026 · anuma.ai/research

Research/Dispatches/The Qwen Surge — and Sudden Sunset
DataJuly 7, 2026·5 min read

The Qwen Surge — and Sudden Sunset

In a single month, Qwen-3.6-Max went from a rounding error to the second-most-chosen model on Anuma — then, a week later, it was gone. A short case study in how fast the consumer AI market moves, and why an aggregator catches it first.

Anuma ResearchConsumer Model Index
Share of deliberate model picks
90-day baseline vs. last 30 days · selected models
90-dayLast 30d24.4GPT-5.4 21.6%10.1Kimi-K2.5 1.1%10.8Grok-4.3 13.9%3.5Kimi-K2.6 8.5%4.2Qwen-3.6-Max 18.4%
anuma.aiConsumer Model Index
Qwen-3.6-Max (highlighted) climbs from 4.2% to ~18% of picks over the month, second only to GPT-5.4 — and has since been retired (see below). Kimi-K2.5 shows the same rise-and-fall a cycle earlier.
Contents
  1. From #9 to #2 — then gone
  2. One in four picks is Chinese-origin
  3. Why the aggregator sees it first
  4. Methodology

From #9 to #2 — then gone in a week

Over the trailing 90 days, Qwen-3.6-Max accounted for ~4% of deliberate model choices on Anuma — a respectable but unremarkable ninth place. Narrow the window to the last 30 days and the picture inverts: its share reaches ~18%, second only to GPT-5.4 and ahead of long-standing favorites like Claude Sonnet and every Gemini model.

No other model moved anywhere near as fast. As the chart above shows, most of the board is flat or drifting; Qwen's line is nearly vertical. The mirror image is Kimi-K2.5 — once the second-most-picked model — shedding almost all of its share as users migrate to its own successor and, increasingly, to Qwen.

4% → 18% → ~0%
Qwen-3.6-Max's share of deliberate picks — 90-day baseline, then its 30-day peak, then the last 7 days. The fastest riser on the board became the fastest faller.

Because as fast as it climbed, it was gone. In the last seven days Qwen-3.6-Max fell to essentially zero — it was retired from the catalog and its users routed to its successor, Qwen-3.7-Plus. The board above is a snapshot of a moment that has already passed: the entire arc, from rounding error to runner-up to sunset, played out inside a single month. That churn is the story — consumer model preference moves in weeks, not quarters, and a static benchmark would never catch it.

One in four picks is Chinese-origin

Qwen isn't an isolated story — it's the sharp edge of a broader shift. Group every model by where it was built and roughly a quarter of all deliberate picks on Anuma now go to a Chinese-origin model: Qwen, Kimi, DeepSeek, MiniMax, GLM, and Ling combined.

Deliberate picks by model origin
Trailing 90 days
Western · 76%
Chinese-origin · 24%
Kimi-K2.5 · Moonshot10.1%
Qwen-3.6-Max · Alibaba4.2%
Kimi-K2.6 · Moonshot3.4%
DeepSeek-V3.21.7%
Qwen-3.6-Plus · Alibaba1.5%
anuma.aiConsumer Model Index
Origin classification is by the model author's home region, not where inference runs. “Western” spans OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI.

This tracks a pattern the broader market is starting to name: capable open models out of China, priced far below the frontier labs, winning real usage rather than just benchmark headlines. What's new here is the vantage point — this is what consumers reach for by choice, not what a leaderboard predicts they should.

Why the aggregator sees it first

A benchmark measures a model in a lab. A blind-vote arena measures it in a forced A/B. Neither captures a person with a real task, real stakes, and a free choice among dozens of models — quietly deciding a newcomer is worth switching to. Because Anuma routes across every major provider, that decision is exactly what our data records.

It's also why a shift like Qwen's shows up in our numbers weeks before it reaches a quarterly report: revealed preference is a leading indicator. The caveat is honesty about scale — this is a fast-moving, wallet-gated user base, not the whole market. But the direction is real, and it's early.

Methodology

Deliberate picks only — the auto router (the majority of messages) is resolved server-side by Anuma's model router, not a deliberate user choice, so it is excluded. Windows are the 90-day baseline and trailing 30- and 7-day windows ending July 7, 2026, each computed against that window's total explicit picks. Hundreds of raw model strings are canonicalized to their real models before counting. Origin is by model-author region, not inference location. We report usage, not quality — what people chose, on a wallet-gated, mobile-heavy user base that is directional and early, not a general-market sample.

See the live board.
The models real people choose, updated continuously.
Open the index →

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